free html hit counter Peak Oil Debunked: 242. EIA LOWERS ITS PEAK FORECAST

Sunday, February 19, 2006

242. EIA LOWERS ITS PEAK FORECAST

Interesting update from Freddy Hutter over at Trendlines:
Feb 18th, 2006 - Today's graph updates the ASPO & EIA Scenarios. While Colin Campbell's change is minor, an increase in the production peak to 86-mbd from 85, EIA has dramatically cutback and extended its projection of a 113-mbd peak in 2025 to 102-mbd in 2030. Neither of the models propose a change in URR. Compare the new EIA outlook with the graph below to appreciate the magnitude of this change. While we have chosen to illustrate EIA's "high price case" once again, its base case scenario has been revised to 118-mbd from 121-mbd.
The graphs are available at the above link.
-- by JD

3 Comments:

At Sunday, February 19, 2006 at 2:49:00 PM PST, Blogger philipmartin said...

This is off-topic..but there's an interesting discussion over at The Oil Drum over conservation versus vacation travel etc.
It seems really to have brought some loonies out of the woodwork and a few surprising admissions from regulars.
I've cut down my travel because I think it's the right thing to do for myself but others, on one hand, are really relishing the peak for various weird reasons, whilst others have the 'I want to see everything before I die' attitude. I have to hand it to you JD I think your analysis of these people, generally, is more right than wrong. I really thought this bunch had a different attitude. They criticize profligate behaviour day after day and then - behold! - it's all been a big joke. Fuck me...

 
At Sunday, February 19, 2006 at 8:39:00 PM PST, Blogger Roland said...

I'm definitely going to keep travelling. I want to take advantage of long-distance air travel before it gets more expensive.

But honestly, you would have to have a death wish to believe you were going to die because of Peak Oil. It's amazing how people read "Life After The Oil Crash" (what a dumb title) and just blindly believe everything it says.

It's as if you bumped into someone on the street who told you you had an extraterrestrial parasite that would eat your brain in in 24 hours. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs.

Peak Oil should be just another factor in future economic and urban planning considerations, not a crazy religion that defines your whole life. As Jaron Lanier says, "There is nothing more gray, stultifying, or dreary than a life lived inside the confines of a theory."

There are a lot of doomers who really hate humanity and enjoy talking about "culling the human herd" and fantasizing about Mad Max scenarios. But there are also quite well-balanced people who get sucked in because they lack the knowledge or critical thinking skills to assess the claims independently.

I have seen quite a few with kids and families who face a personal crisis because of some elitist shit they read on dieoff.com. They don't want to die, but they don't know anything about geology and EROEI and complicated figures. Matt Savinar's a lawyer, so he must be telling the truth!

Apart from the damage that doomers do to the credibility of Peak Oil, I hate them for how they ruin the lives of these gullible people. That's why I admire this site so much.


Anyway, back to the post ...

 
At Monday, February 20, 2006 at 4:46:00 AM PST, Blogger Freak said...

Roland, you could not have said it better....the doomer propaganda has already done more damage do people that any peak could ever do.

 

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