341. INDIA'S OIL DEMAND IS NOT INCREASING MUCH
Recently I've noticed a lot of articles blaming the spike in oil prices on demand from China and India.
But he [Giovanni Serio, oil analyst at Goldman Sachs] remained positive on oil long-term because of the market's deeply-ingrained structural constraints that mean supply cannot easily rise to meet rapidly increasing demand from emerging countries like China and India.LinkDick Cheney:
Cheney said there had also been a "dramatic increase" in demand from countries like China and India,LinkChristophe de Margerie, head of France's Total SA:
The crunch is due to a slate of “above-ground” factors that make it unlikely the world will ever produce the amounts of oil Mr. Yergin or the International Energy Agency think it will, Mr. de Margerie said. That includes sudden and voracious demand from China and India;LinkSounds plausible enough. After all, "surging demand form China and India" is the soundbite reason given to justify the bubble in all commodities. There's just one problem. Oil demand from India is not rapidly increasing, and it's not dramatically increasing, and it's not sudden and voracious either.
Here's India's recent oil consumption from the June 2007 BP Statistical Review:
Here's the oil consumption figures for "Other Asia", which includes India, from the EIA:
1st quarter 2006: 8.62
2nd quarter 2006: 8.71
3rd quarter 2006: 8.54
4th quarter 2006: 8.82
1st quarter 2007: 8.73
2nd quarter 2007: 8.82
3rd quarter 2007: 8.63