408. KJELL ALEKLETT: 0.5% PER ANNUM POST-PEAK DECLINE
A few weeks ago Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International, visited Australia and gave a presentation which included his forecast for oil production in 2030:
Professor Aleklett addressed the NSW electric car task force and the Federal Government's Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics yesterday. He had earlier warned a Senate committee that the International Energy Agency had wildly overestimated oil production, lulling nations such as Australia into a false sense of security.A fall of 11% to 76mbd means that Aleklett is using a figure of roughly 85.4mbd for the current production level. (In other words, he is using the term "oil" to mean liquids in this context.)
Rather than oil production rising by 20 per cent to 101.5 million barrels a day in 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11 per cent, to just 76 million barrels a day.Source
Running the numbers, we find that Aleklett is predicting a post-peak liquids decline rate of 0.5% per year. He is predicting that liquids production 21 years from now will be roughly 90% of what it is today (76/85.4 = 89%). This rate of decline is extremely mild and easy to cope with. Indeed a decline of 11% in liquids fuel production is substantially less than the 14% decline which occurred over the course of only 4 years in the early 1980s (a time I like to call The Big Glitch).
For reference, here is Aleklett's forecast from P. 40 of the pdf of his presentation (available here, click to enlarge):
Aleklett also foresees a mild decline rate for conventional crude (i.e., C&C, not including non-conventional, NGL etc.) The most recent production figure for conventional crude (EIA, March 2009) was 72 mbd. So Aleklett forecasts that conventional crude 21 years from now will be 77% of what it is today. That translates into an annual decline rate of 1.3% -- again, very mild.
These facts show that Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO international, is basically in agreement with my own well-known prediction from Dec. 2007:
JD's Prediction: World C&C production will decline at an average annual rate of 1% for 15 years after the world C&C peak.
Don't let doomers pull your leg. They love to talk about extremely high post-peak decline rates, but the top people, like Kjell Aleklett, don't buy it. For more information on the principle of slow decline, please see:
317. STRONG ARGUMENT FOR A SLOW DECLINE and
323. LARGE BLOCKS PLATEAU FOR DECADES